Market Wrap / banks out, bargains in

Shane Oliver from AMP shares views on today’s market developments, noting the ASX 200 is down around 0.4%, with the materials sector as the main drag. Major miners including BHP (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), and Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG) are seeing significant declines, reflecting recent movements in iron ore pricing. Meanwhile, some lithium names such as Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and MinRes (ASX:MIN) remain positive. Energy also performs strongly, driven by Woodside (ASX:WDS).

Oliver observes US markets, especially the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reaching new highs amid optimism over international trade deals. He questions the benefit of these deals for non-US countries, highlighting rising tariffs—averaging 20% for entry into the US— and raises concerns about cost absorption, price pressures, and the potential for these tariffs to eventually impact consumers or company profits. He points out that US inflationary pressure from tariffs is absent in Australia.

Turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia, Oliver comments on expectations for a rate cut at the next meeting, arguing the likelihood is closer to 80% rather than certainty. He highlights communication challenges in the central bank’s new board structure, warning this could confuse the public and reduce policy effectiveness.